TENSIONS between Iran and the international community are rising again.
The European Union and the US yesterday issued a joint statement, threatening to impose more sanctions on Iran if it does not suspend its uranium enrichment and give full access to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Some observers in Washington are even talking of a growing possibility of a military strike. It is widely believed that Israel will not allow Iran to achieve a nuclear status. This comes a day after the Iraqi PM assured his Iranian counterpart that Iraqi territory would not be used for hostile acts against Iran.
Yet the Iranian leadership does not seem perturbed by the hullabaloo. In fact Iran is emboldened in its stance towards the US and international organisations. Under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran has retreated from the diplomatic gains made by former president Mohammad Khatami (who will visit Australia later this month). While Khatami's government made some (not very successful) efforts to bring Iran out of isolation, Ahmadinejad's Government revels in its world pariah status.
Repeated inflammatory statements about "wiping Israel off the map" are as much aimed at Ahmadinejad's domestic support base as regional and international audiences.
This is sometimes attributed to a lack of tact but the problem is much greater than diplomatic finesse.
Ahmadinejad represents an ideological mix of hardliner and conservative characterised by missionary zeal and a deep suspicion of international organisations. In this worldview, the UN and the IAEA are little more than instruments of domination for the "Great Satan". Harking back to the early days of the revolution, Ahmadinejad emphasises Iran's revolutionary mission in the region, openly embracing Hezbollah and Hamas.
Under Ahmadinejad a peculiar new organisation has emerged inviting volunteers for suicide operations "in defence of Islam". This was widely seen in Iran to be targeted at Israel and caused a public uproar, even in the ranks of conservative leaders.
Those critical of Ahmadinejad's policies argue that a wilful antagonisation of the West is not advancing the interests of Iran or Islam. Nonetheless, Tehran has only a few strategic partners in the region and will not trade them off easily. Close ties with Hezbollah is Tehran's insurance policy in case of a US/Israeli raid on its nuclear facilities.
Tehran draws comfort from political developments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Once sandwiched between antagonistic regimes, the archaic and brutal Taliban and the sadistic Saddam, Iran now finds itself big brother to both. Due to religious and cultural affinities, Baghdad and Kabul view Iran as a regional partner. In Iraq, many officials maintain personal links with Iran. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who led the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in Saddam's time, had close links with Iran during the eight years of Iran-Iraq bloodletting and paid tribute to Iran for its support during his first international visit to Tehran. In addition, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which has become a formidable force in the post-Saddam era, was formed in Iran in 1982 and had a military brigade under the command of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards during the Iran-Iraq war.
The irony is that, if it were not for the US, Iran would not have found its friends in high places. It was a reluctant acknowledgement of Iran's influence in Iraq that Washington engaged in limited tripartite talks in Baghdad to contain tensions in Iraq last year. For all his hardline grandstandings and rhetoric of confrontation, Ahmadinejad is aware of the political quagmire that Iraq has turned out to be for the US. There is a general consensus in Iran that the US public does not have the stomach for another regime change. This is a source of comfort for the more pragmatic in the Islamic regime.
As a result, while annoyed with the unflattering image that Ahmadinejad projects on the international stage, the pragmatic leadership does not fear immediate repercussions.
The saga of difficult US-Iran relations shows no sign of ending and Iran is increasingly bullish. Threats of military action, as George W. Bush is fond of saying, are still alive but few expect Washington to follow through.
Ahmadinejad has elevated Iran's nuclear program to an issue of national pride and "inalienable right", making negotiations with the IAEA more difficult as the issue is now charged with Ahmadinejad's political credibility on the line. Given the next election is in 2009, it is unlikely Ahmadinejad will change course and allow a compromise.
Shahram Akbarzadeh is deputy director of the National Centre of Excellence for Islamic Studies.
