Powered by

Gaza Blockade	Diplomacy	Iran	History unfolding	Historic statements
Dhimmitude	Media imbalance	UN doings	Philosophy & Morality	US Politics
Terrorism	Australian Issues	Neo Anti Sem	Spengler	Videos

Israel and the Blackmailer Paradox

Among those bewildered and horrified by the fact that Israel has been turned into a pariah state, it is common to hear complaints about the uselessness of Israeli PR. But this is to miss the point by a mile.

Yes, there are many examples of amateurishness or inexplicable silence on the part of Israel’s hasbarah effort, although it is getting better.

But the real problem is far deeper. It rests not on the presentation of Israel’s case. It is rooted instead in Israel’s whole strategy for dealing with the pressures upon it, and the way in which it has conceptualised the existential threat it faces from Arab rejectionism. The flawed way it thinks about its own situation has locked it into a vice from which it cannot escape.

The problem has been elegantly summed up by Robert Aumann, an Israeli-American who was awarded the Nobel Prize for economics in 2005 for his work on conflict and co-operation through Game Theory analysis.

In an article on aish.com, he suggests that Israel has fallen into the trap of the Blackmailer Paradox. Rational Israel is being forced to act irrationally, essentially through a chronic lack of confidence in its own position when faced with an implacable opponent.

He uses the analogy of Shimon and Reuben representing the Palestinians and the Israelis who are dividing up a suitcase of money between them. Shimon declares unreasonably he will grab nine-tenths of the money. But, because he says take it or leave it, Reuben is forced to agree to this injustice just to avoid ending up with no money at all.

The present Israeli approach is based on precisely this Blackmailer Paradox. Israel believes that some kind of agreement with the Arabs must be reached at all costs because the present situation is intolerable.

But, at every negotiation, the Arabs take positions that are as unbending as they are unreasonable. So Israel is forced to yield to this blackmail because it fears that otherwise that it will leave the negotiating table with nothing.

The solution, says Aumann, is for Israel to employ correctly the principles of Game Theory. This means first accepting that in the immediate future it may well leave the negotiating table with nothing and that this is better than accepting an erosion of its security.

Second, it should realise that repeating a game many times changes the calculation made by each player. Israel’s refusal to compromise would thus alter the balance of power because the Arabs would realise that they might end up with nothing unless they compromise.

Third, what is absolutely crucial is the player’s unshakeable stance. This not only strengthens him in his conviction that he is right but, more crucially still, it even manages to convince his opponent, too. It thus totally undermines that opponent, forcing him to act irrationally against his own interests in order to reach a compromise.

This is exactly what has happened to Israel. Faced with unjust Arab intransigence, it has been bamboozled over the years into making one compromise after another.

The tragic result is not only that the peace it so desperately seeks becomes ever more elusive. Israel also finds itself damned around the world for resisting an unjust Arab cause because, by failing to undermine the implacable Arab stance, it allows that cause to appear justified.

As Aumann observes, the situation will be resolved only if we convince ourselves of the justice of our views.

Israel should refuse to negotiate against its own interests, which tacitly acknowledges that the Arabs have a case. Instead, it should make the argument from justice and articulate the full extent of the great wrong inflicted by its global tormentors.

Israel needs to reconceptualise the rules of the game it is playing. But, in order to convince the rest of the world, it must first convince itself.

# reads: 409

Original piece is http://www.melaniephillips.com/articles-new/?p=756

Printable version

follow ICJSr on Twitter

Articles RSS Feed

News

Oscar-winning director Oliver Stone in an interview decried what he called the Jewish lobby's control over Washington's foreign policy and said that Hitler's actions should be put "into context."

A day after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would not extend a West Bank building freeze, violence broke out in an outpost there following the demolition of an illegally built home.

A former American spy chief says the path to U.S. military action against Iran is inescapable.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed the team named by the United Nations Human Rights Council to investigate the Turkish flotilla incident.

New Zealand's Jewish community is mounting a legal case against the country's new law banning kosher slaughter.

The Obama administration will allow the PLO office in Washington to fly the Palestinian flag and assume the title of "delegation."

The elected leader of Australian Jewry blasted his Christian counterpart over an "ill-considered" resolution asking churches to boycott goods produced by West Bank Jews.

Yemen's Supreme Court has upheld the death sentence of a Yemeni man who killed a Jewish fellow citizen after demanding that he convert.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is returning to Washington to coordinate ways to isolate Iran.

Vandals painted red swastikas on the walls of the Jewish Museum of Greece in Athens.

Haredi Orthodox youth are being blamed for a massive fire near Jerusalem that nearly led to the evacuation of Hadassah Hospital.

U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) called on her opponent in their congressional election to stop writing for Andrew Breitbart's conservative website.

The president of Egypt's Jewish community allegedly has fled the country after being convicted of fraud and ordered to prison.

Israel lost to Turkey in the Euroleague women's volleyball bronze medal game in an empty arena amid tight security.

A Chabad rabbi has become the first rabbi since World War II to join the Canadian armed forces full time.

Israeli airstrikes reportedly destroyed a weapons manufacturing site and two smuggling tunnels in the Gaza Strip.

A firecracker exploded on the steps of the synagogue in Malmo, Sweden, a day after a bomb threat was taped to the building.

Israel's Cabinet agreed to send a group of police officers to Haiti to maintain public order.

A Netanya man was arrested for murdering his three young children.

Ahead of midterm elections, a Democratic leader distributed talking points to fellow House Democrats stressing support for Israel by President Obama and the party.

Two Jewish schools were ranked among the best high schools in Brazil.

The Palestinian Authority has granted travel documents and honorary citizenship to Irish anti-Israel activists who participated in a Gaza aid flotilla.

Tell us what you think

Israel has been conducting these "peace" negotiations with the Arabs in a stupid and defeatist way, foolishly forgetting that no matter how much they give in, the undeterred goal of the Arabs is its elimination and forgetting that the only language Arabs understand is that of force. Furthermore, they must realize once and for all how useless is to resort to the UN on anyting, as this body is fully and absolutely in the back pocket of the Arabs and Israel"s detractors, proven ad nauseam by the outcome of the stupid 2006 Lebanon war and 1706 UN resolution which reinforced Hizbullah"s position in South Lebanon One has only to remember the famous Jenin "massacre" Palis claiming 5,000 dead which at the end were only 36 gunment and a miraculous corpse "ressurrection" but 23 Israeli reserve soldiers killed protecting "innocent" Pali civilians

Posted by jacob on 2010-07-27 16:51:38 GMT

Totally correct. Jewish desire for a compromise win/win solution is working against us is this conflict. Best strategy is to not budge on essential issues. This strategy is no only yield best outcomes BUT also garner the most respect from everyone! Send the Oslo crowd to Uganda!!

Posted by Ymr on 2010-07-26 23:38:26 GMT

Links

Israel and the Blackmailer Paradox

Twitter Updates

News

Tell us what you think